The paper that should end all climate change talk.
World Atmospheric CO2, Its 14C Specific Activity, Non-fossil Component, Anthropogenic Fossil Component, and Emissions (1750–2018)
This paper should end the false hypothesis of man-caused (anthropogenic) climate change, if the whole multi-trillion dollar scam were ever about science.
When a scientific theory is contradicted by data, facts, observations, etc., the theory or hypothesis is modified or discarded. Anthropogenic climate change has been disproved. This paper is the proof. But, since the scam is so vastly, lasciviously lucrative in both money and power, the theory is kept alive by its handlers/beneficiaries.
You see, carbon has isotopes (same number of protons in the nucleus, but different numbers of neutrons), C12, C13, and C14. The isotopes are the same chemically and make up the CO2 in our atmosphere. However, C12 and C13 are not radioactive, but C14 is, which is created by the bombardment of carbon atoms by cosmic radiation in the upper atmosphere and has a half-life of 5730 years.
Hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) have been in the ground for millions of years. Any C14 originally contained in them has decayed to essentially nothing (many half-lives have gone by). So, when we burn oil, coal, and gas, we add CO2 to the atmosphere that doesn’t contain any C14, only C12 and C13.
The subject paper uses these physical facts to quantify the man-caused (anthropogenic) and not man-caused (non-anthropogenic) components of CO2 in the atmosphere from 1750 (onset of the industrial revolution) to 2018. And, it will surprise you! You have been told that most or all of the increase in CO2 since 1750 is man-caused. But you would be wrong.
These results negate claims that the increase in C(t) [concentration of CO2] since 1800 has been dominated by the increase of the anthropogenic fossil component. We determined that in 2018, atmospheric anthropogenic fossil CO2 represented 23% of the total emissions since 1750 with the remaining 77% in the exchange reservoirs. Our results show that the percentage of the total CO2 due to the use of fossil fuels from 1750 to 2018 increased from 0% in 1750 to 12% in 2018, much too low to be the cause of global warming.
The results reported in the paper “negate” (disprove) the idea that the increase in atmospheric CO2 is mostly man-caused. This should be the end of the climate change charade. Science facts directly in conflict with the theory of climate change.
Here are the conclusions of the paper, but please do read it yourself.
The scientific literature does not appear to provide estimates of either the annual mean values of the anthropogenic fossil component, CF(t), or of the non-fossil component, CNF(t), present in the total atmospheric CO2 concentration, C(t), nor their respective changes from values in 1750.
The annual mean values of all CO2 quantities provided in this paper automatically account for the redistribution of CO2 among its reservoirs, including all of its isotopic forms. Results depend on chosen values in 1750 of 276.44 ppm for C(0) and 16.33 dpm (gC)−1 for S(0), both of which may be somewhat overestimated as indicated in the text. Based on the simple equations used to calculate all CO2 quantities, smaller values for these chosen quantities would yield smaller values of the anthropogenic fossil component, CF(t), and larger values of the non-fossil component, CNF(t).
In 1950, the <CF(t)> value of 4.03 ppm in Table 2a is 1.29 % of C(t) and 11.48% of the increase, DC(t), of 35.10 ppm since 1750. After 1950, values of the two components of C(t) begin to increase rapidly, and this increase continues through 2018. This rapid increase, however, is not triggered by the greenhouse effect and global warming associated with either the 1950 value of 4.03 ppm for CF(t) or the relatively small increase in the annual change, DCNF(t), of 31.07 ppm in the non-fossil component, which is 88.5% of the DC(t) value of 35.10 ppm. This DCNF(t) value of 31.07 ppm in 1950 results from the annual redistribution of CO2 among its reservoirs, primarily a net release of CO2 from the oceans due to increases in temperatures from solar insolation in 1950 and afterwards.
In 2018, the <CF(t)> value of 46.84 ppm is 11.55% of the C(t) value of 405.40 ppm, 36.32% of the DC(t) value of 128.96 ppm, and 57.04% of the DCNF(t) value of 82.12 ppm. These results negate claims that the increase, DC(t), in C(t), since 1750 has been dominated by the increase of the anthropogenic fossil component, CF(t).
In 2018, the total content of anthropogenic fossil CO2 in the atmosphere is estimated as 3.664 × 1017 g, which is 23% of the total emissions of 1.590 × 1018 g since 1750. Thus, in 2018, 77% of the total emissions is estimated to be present in the atmosphere’s exchange reservoirs.
Claims of the dominance of the anthropogenic component, CF(t), in the increase of the CO2 concentration, C(t), first began in 1960 with: “Keeling Curve: Increase in CO2 from burning fossil fuel” (Rubino 2013). Despite the lack of knowledge of the two components of C(t), these claims have continued in the scientific literature.
Calculated much larger reductions in values for the annual mean D14C statistic and other reductions in the <S(t)> statistic in Table 1 are required to support the claims that the increase of the total concentration, C(t) above C(0) in 1750 has been dominated by or is equal to the increase in the anthropogenic fossil component, CF(t). These results negate the claims of the dominance of CF(t) in the increase of C(t).
Claims of the dominance of the anthropogenic fossil component have involved (a) the misuse of the d13C and D14C statistics to validate these claims when they are expressed in the common unit of per mil (‰), which causes their slopes in plots to be magnified by a factor of 1,000 above what they otherwise would be; (b) the plot of decreasing values of the d13C statistic along with the plot of increasing values of the total CO2 concentration, C(t), in the same figure on different vertical axes to infer or claim that the increase in C(t) is due mostly or entirely to the anthropogenic fossil component, CF(t), even though large reductions of the d13C statistic reflect no significant changes in its (13C/12C) atom ratios and bear no significant relationship with increases in the anthropogenic fossil component, CF(t); and (c) EIA plot of the CO2 concentration, C(t), in the same figure with the plot of the annual emissions, DE(t), of anthropogenic fossil-derived CO2 on different vertical scales, which provides the inference that the anthropogenic fossil component, CF(t), is responsible for the increase in C(t) when a plot of the non-fossil component, CNF(t), and of the anthropogenic fossil component, CF(t), are not included in the EIA figure.
An article on Glacial-Interglacial Cycles (NOAA) suggests that recent increases in CO2 and temperatures are due primarily to cyclic changes of solar radiation associated with Earth’s orbit about the sun. The annual change, DCNF(t), in the non-fossil component has positive increasing values in Table 2 (https://links.lww.com/HP/A210) after 1764. It will eventually become negative in the next glacial period when average temperatures decrease again as they have done over all of the previous glacial-interglacial cycles.
The assumption that the increase in CO2 since 1800 is dominated by or equal to the increase in the anthropogenic component is not settled science. Unsupported conclusions of the dominance of the anthropogenic fossil component of CO2 and concerns of its effect on climate change and global warming have severe potential societal implications that press the need for very costly remedial actions that may be misdirected, presently unnecessary, and ineffective in curbing global warming.
Read the last one (#10) again. In layman’s terms, the authors are saying that man’s CO2 contribution since the beginning of the industrial revolution is not the major component of atmospheric CO2 and deadly expensive fossil fuel use reductions will not stop climate change. (Because man’s activities are not causing climate change!)
I’ll leave you with this figure from the paper. Climate change is caused by variations in solar radiation reaching the earth. The temperature change in these cycles proceeds the increase in atmospheric CO2, not the cause of them.